Forecast Of Price Quotations Of China 2017 NEW Dried Bulk Goji Berry Market
1.Marketing situation
The production of goji berry in 2017 that was two or three times more than that in 2016 has been basically clear and there is an indisputable fact that output is higher than sales. But the outlook is not optimistic in the future.
The price of goji berry was below 4.41 dollars per kilogram before 2010 (as for unclassified goods). And the planting area of goji berry is stable. It was not until 2011 that goji berry, which had been silent for many years, broke the price of $5.89 per kilogram in a short time. Since 2011, goji berry has been planted in succession in many places. The goji berries of which the planting areas were doubled from 2011 to 2012 have basically reached the “full fruit” period in 2016.
In 2014, with an outburst in goji berry market, the price was as high as $8.83 per kilogram, and the enthusiasm of farmers were aroused. The goji berries planted after 2014 will reach the “full fruit” period from 2017 to 2018.
A conservative estimate of total output of goji berry is more than 250 thousand tons in 2017. In recent years, with the increasing demand for goji berry, the average demand is about 18-20 tons per year. There are rest 50 thousand tons from 2016 and most plants whose production can not be underestimated will reach the “full fruit” period from 2017 to 2018. Various areas of businesses said that there are still some farmers expanding the planting areas continuously this year.
According to the total output of 250 thousand tons and average yield per mu of 250 kilograms this year, there are more than 1 million mu of planting area in China. And the planting area didn’t change too much in Ningxia, Hebei or Gansu, but it was increased obviously in Xinjiang, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia.
Many businesses reflected that, this year, the profit of every mu of goji berry will decline continuously, but farmers can still obtain much with the price at present, they will not give up cultivating in areas with fewer alternatives and they will continue expanding before the price is lower than the cost.
For example, in Gansu Jingyuan County, in 2015, the local farmers earned about 3 thousand dollars per mu at the best. The gross profit was high to 1500 dollars per mu in stagnant 2016. As for local farmers, cultivating goji berries is a profitable project.
And as for Xinjiang Jinghe County, the planting area which was about 125 thousand mu in 2015 was expanded to 175 thousand mu in 2016. In this expansion rate, the yield in Jinghe county will increase 1.2-1.3 tons every year.
2.Prices forecast of goji berry in 2017
Over the past few years, goji berry market has grown worse with overcapacity, and lower prices. It is estimated that the price of new goji berry in 2017 will be as follows:
Initial stage of listing: as for Ningxia goji berry (unassorted), the price will be 6.00-7.00 dollars in different qualities; the price of Qinghai goji berry will be 6.00-7.00 dollars; the price of Xinjiang goji berry will be 5.00-6.00 dollars; the price of Gansu goji berry will be 5.15-6.20 dollars; the price of Inner Mongolia goji berry will be about 6.20 dollars.
Later stage of listing: as for Ningxia goji berry (unassorted), the price will be 4.70-6.80 dollars in different qualities; the price of Qinghai goji berry will be 4.70-6.50 dollars; the price of Xinjiang goji berry will be about 4.5 dollars; the price of Inner Mongolia goji berry will be 4.50-4.60 dollars.
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